Validating local meteorological forecast knowledge in the Bolivian Altiplano: moving toward the co-production of agricultural forecasts

This study validates local forecast indicators used by indigenous Aymara in Bolivia’s Northern and Central Altiplano. In Bolivia, the use of traditional forecasting methods is declining even though climate services cannot provide useful forecasts because a low density stations lack outreach services. Validating knowledge can reduce erosion resolving debates over their utility within communities gaining support public agencies charged with promoting knowledge. The research had three phases, first key informants identified indicators, then 95 farmers were asked to evaluate reliability. North, four rated as highly reliable region, three. Finally, seasonal indicator two onset rains evaluating using historical meteorological data. was minimum temperature on Fiesta de San Juan, rainy season flowering pattern plant species. explained 55.5% variance growing precipitation. Flowering patterns are affected severe frosts, there correlation between frosts later rains. Results show knowledge’s potential for improving agrometeorological managing weather-related risks.